During the month of April, we're
participating in the Blogging From A to Z Challenge where every day (excluding Sundays) we'll be posting to
the blog . . . alphabetically. The overall theme we've chosen to tie all the
entries together is living aboard a boat and cruising – things
we've learned along the way: our thoughts, reflections, and tips for those just
starting out or who are interested in this lifestyle.
The weather . . . and weather forecasts! Probably one of the most frequently discussed and
debated topics among sailors of all kinds; whether in the bar, the clubhouse,
or on the VHF or SSB. In fact wherever two sailors meet in conversation the
subject is more than likely to arise. And for very good reason. No matter if
passage-making offshore for several weeks, sailing near-coastal, or sailing in protected waters,
having a good, accurate (not to mention favourable) weather forecast for the
duration of your time on the water is or should be a significant factor in a
captain’s decision-making process. The unexpected arrival of bad weather while
on the water can not only spoil your day but can also create conditions ranging
anywhere from uncomfortable to actually challenging your survival.
We
have available a variety of good, up-to-date weather information, both from
governmental agencies, public entities such as universities, and private
sources of all kinds, whether by internet or e-mail, VHF radio or suitably
capable SSB (or HAM) radio.
While
we’re on the subject, most people don’t realize that there are less than a handful
of principal weather forecasting “models/programmes” in use worldwide – GFS
produced by the U.S. U.K.
If
this really is the case then we’re already at a fair disadvantage at the outset
in trying to develop any forecast. I know it’s the easiest thing in the world
to “start throwing rocks” over an inaccurate forecast but, being realistic, we
should understand that, even for the professionals, weather forecasting is as
much the art of balancing between probabilities and probable outcomes as it is
a precise science. And if this is the case, from my perspective it makes sense
for the purposes of sailors such as ourselves to gather and compare forecast
information from as many independent sources and in as many forms as possible.
And there’s yet one more option: learning how to read and interpret synoptic
charts and produce your own forecasts. In case it’s an unfamiliar term, a
synoptic chart is a visual representation of the weather conditions being
experienced across any given area. Once you can interpret the information
contained in these charts you can develop a reasonable prediction of the
weather conditions that are likely to develop in the near future. Learning to
do so is not a hard skill to develop and
one which can be extremely rewarding, let alone very useful. Some may even say
essential.
So
here we go . . . the following are a number of the sources we have consistently
used and relied upon over the years*:
Providing forecast synoptic charts, which show surface
barometric pressure, isobars plotted at 2 millibar (hectopascal) intervals,
forecast wind speed and direction, and anticipated 6-hour rainfall, at 6 hour
intervals for 3, 7 and 10 days for most areas of the world, MetVUW remains one
of our favourite weather sources. We’ve
consistently consulted this site in developing/comparing forecasts in
connection with the thousands of miles in offshore, near-shore, and coastal
passages we’ve covered since 2002, when we first became aware of its existence
in New Zealand Victoria University Wellington , New Zealand School of Meteorology
Providing
current weather forecasts for marine and coastal areas of the US
Providing
near real-time imagery from NOAA geostationary satellite network. Among a
variety of other images available, the most commonly used include area imaging
showing visual spectrum, infra-red spectrum, and water vapour scan.
Providing
current weather forecasts and information for Canada
Insight
into local weather conditions and patterns with updated forecasts written by
the Pacific
Northwest ’s
weather guru, Cliff Mass.
Bob
provides a weekly evaluation of current weather patterns in and around the
South Pacific and is the cruising sailor’s go-to-guy when it comes to the
weather.
If you’d like to learn how to have NOAA forecasts sent
directly to your email account, this article we wrote for Three Sheets Northwest
gives you step-by-step instructions.
* We do consult other sources through
apps (NOAA Hi-Def Radar, Pocket Grib, Sail Flow) but the list represents our
primary weather resources.
12 comments
We'd both like to take a class in weather 'forecasting'. There is a lot to look at on a chart like that and I am easily visually over stimulated so learning to focus on the important stuff and screen out whatever I don't need in the moment will be critical. Thanks for putting the weather stuff all in one place. When we are at home, not out on the boat, we read The Weather Cafe, by Rufus. http://ovs.com/wx-cafe
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link. The Wx Cafe looks like a good source of information for overall weather patterns. Unfortunately, he agrees with everything we've been seeing -- a likely return to cooler temperatures when we drop our lines on the first of May.
DeleteIt is so funny when I think about it... People in Belgium have the tendency to always talk about the weather as small talk (because they have nothing else to talk about?). So much so, that it is becoming a joke. Yet, the outcome of the weather never really mattered that much. As sailors, who also always talk about the weather, I can see more merit to discussing this subject. So now, when I talk about the weather in Belgium, I say "At least we don't have to leave port!" :-) The weather has defined our life for eight years and I am happy to report that it is an incredibly nice side-effect of living on land now that we don't have to follow the daily reports! Or, have to get up early for it!
ReplyDeleteLiesbet @ Roaming About – A Life Less Ordinary
I know exactly what you're saying. Those months that we spend visiting family over the holidays is such a nice break from weather gathering and organizing our lives based on the forecast.
DeleteReminds of the schoolchild tongue twister: Whether the weather be fine, or whether the weather be not; we'll weather the weather, whatever the weather, whether we like it or not!
ReplyDeleteAll the internet resources we have currently are amazing; we used to have to call the FAA's Flight Service line for aviation weather; now there's an app for that! -Lucy
In the 70s, my dad worked with Doppler radar in Norman, OK. I went down to visit him one summer and he took me to work. The computers took up a couple of large trailers and were reel to reel. Today, all we have to do is open an app. It's great!
DeleteAlthough I'm not a sailor, I found this fascinating! My son, now 14, was spellbound during weather forecasts when he was a toddler. Whatever he was doing at the time those weather maps came up, he would drop and just stand there and stare.
ReplyDeleteBoldly Going Through the Alphabet!
@shanjeniah
Part-Time Minion for Holton's Heroes
shanjeniah's Lovely Chaos
"Bodly Going Through the Alphabet!" -- I love it! That's so interesting about you son . . . I wonder what it was that caught his attention (the colours on radar?). Thanks for stopping by the blog and commenting. We really appreciate it!
DeleteCheers.
I am always surprised to meet other sailors or liveaboards who *can't* quote you the forecast for at least the next 24 hours off the top of their heads, or read it from the pattern of the clouds. It's become so utterly second nature for me.
ReplyDeleteI know. There's a family that's cruising down in the Caribbean for the first time and they were complaining on Facebook about NOAA's forecast being way off because they had no idea that you need to allow for a 50% differential either way in forecasted wind speeds. It was really disappointing.
DeleteWell done David! We'll expect to see you posting around here more often :-) Great info and advice. I hadn't known that there were only a few weather forecasting models/programs until I spend last hurricane season in Florida and started paying a lot more attention to the weather forecasts and their sources, especially when they differed so much.
ReplyDeleteLol. He said not to hold your breath (which is a real shame because the guy's a walking encyclopedia).
Delete